Senna

May 1, 1994 

1994 San Marino Grand Prix

                    "Race had begun. He was leading the race with Michael Schumacher behind him in second place. Successfully completing six laps, they were in seventh. At one corner, when his car was at 310 KMPH lost balance. He realized that the front tires were slipping. In some hundredths of a second, he reacted by releasing the throttle and pushing brakes hard which made the car to slow to 211 KMPH. In less than 2 seconds, his car hit the concrete wall. Moments or some time later at the hospital, he was declared dead due to fatal head injury." (See footnote 1)

He's Ayrton Senna.

             Its the video of that crash, which I tried to put in words, introduced me to this famous personality. Following that, I watched some more videos and some more videos and some more videos ending up watching the mainstream film (a documentary) of his life.(Senna, See footnote 2)

             I found myself very emotional at the end of the film. But its not I'd like to write here. I've learned a few things of them some are very important, I think.


Opportunity
             I believe that success is a combination of things like opportunity, talent, hard work, luck etc with different weights according to the situation or field of study. And opportunity gathers more weight because lacking the opportunity other things won't be able to take you to your prime.

             Opportunity arrives. But sometimes we just don't notice it. And some other times it disguises us and leaves from the back door. The main motto is that you should be prepared and wait with utmost patience to catch it.

               Okay, granted that you got an opportunity. Lets suppose you got it under very bad conditions or unfortunate conditions. Like, you are called for an interview with a big MNC, when you go there you find yourself competing with several hundreds of other people who are in a desperate need of the job just like you are. Then, despite the very competitive conditions, you've to give your best shot.

               The same thing happened with Ayrton Senna at his first Formula-1 race. Weather was in total bad condition, it was raining yet the race continued. Because of the large bulky rear tires of Formula-1 car, the rain water gets sprayed over making it a view look like its filled with a thick fog for the driver coming behind. For example...

             Ayrton started from 13th position as he's the new entrant then. With those conditions some of them hit the side dividers and some stopped driving, Ayrton didn't. He continued chasing the two players who are in the lead, despite some minor skids.
             Later, the second racer hit the rails. And Ayrton Senna went on approaching the first car fiercely. However, owing to the bad conditions the race was stopped. Senna finished in second place. Some pundits of F-1 race said that Had the race continued further, we'd have seen him in winning position. (See footnotes for the video of that race)

             I thought more about that race, that situation. He knew that there was no other driving on that time except him and Alain Prost ( Driver leading the race). But he din't go for the second place willingly. He didn't accept or compromise with the conditions to give up. He went on and on and took total damage or fatal risks to win. To win is his goal. Following are his quotes: (See footnote 3 for race video)

                                      "Winning is the most important. Everything is consequence of that."
   
           "I am not designed to come second or third. I am designed to win."
                                               
                                                           "Being second is to be the first of the ones who lose."


Risk 

           There is so much complexity, fragility & uncertainty around us, involving risk. Combined with that our brains won't like uncertainty. To overcome these its better to think of everything as a gamble or in terms of probability. Likes odds in favor and odds against.

           When we look at driving cars or riding bikes in this view, it can be concluded that its a huge gamble involving fast assumptions, quick probabilities and possibilities of the situation. (Quick as in milliseconds)

           We face risk all the time, I don't have to specify how risk is involved with driving. I drive bikes. I don't about other's opinions but I think when I'm riding my bike, a process runs in my brain which keeps on making assumptions, probabilities and possibilities. And it also takes the help of the past data which is stored already in brain.

            Being a racing driver, he understood this thing in depth. We use these skills such as probabilities, possibilities to put ourselves on safe side but racing drivers use this to take advantage. Of them, Ayrton Senna is a top notch racing driver.He used these skills to make the car dance around corners. (See footnote 6 for a great lap overtaking two cars at a time)


Some people claimed that he's gifted with sixth sense that sees the grip where it lies. Some people's comments:

            John Bisignano(Journalist):  There's only one word that describes Ayrton's style, and that is: fast. He would take the car beyond it's design capabilities. He would brake later, fly into these corners where the car was just over the edge, and somehow, he could dance and dance with that car, to where it stayed on track. (From the movie: Senna, click on the link for the interview video)

             “Senna made the car dance," says former F1 driver John Watson. "He did things with the car that I hadn't even thought about, let alone put in to practice.” Watson added “after witnessing this, I knew that my time as race car driver was effectively over.”

               In 1984, a racing track was opened with a joint venture with Mercedes and 20 star-studded racing drivers were invited to race with equal cars. Of them, Mercedes recruited F-3 (Formula-3) racing champ Ayrton Senna, and old F-1 champions.

 It was considered as a fun event by everybody except Senna. The event was won by Ayrton, no one expected this.

Some former champions said like this:


               John Watson remembers,"The main memory I have of it all is of Ayrton and how he attacked the circuit and in particular the chicane, which in those days was much quicker than today. He was just launching the car over the kerbs like a stone skimming across the water. He went to a different level.

               "It was, I suppose, his calling card. That was the minimum accepted standard from him on display. He was clearly exceptionally gifted. Everyone else had turned up basically for the beer. It was a fun event, a thank you for Mercedes, a nice weekend in Germany in a hotel and nobody got stressed about it - except Ayrton, that is" (See footnote 5)

That's it.

P S: After writing this I found something else which is against what I thought. In the opportunity section, I wrote that he grabbed that opportunity very nicely at the race on rainy day. In one of his interviews, he said that, he was very bad initially with wet roads at cart racing. This made him to work and work and work on the wet tracks. And he improved.

P P S: The writing style with pics is inspired from my professor.

Thanks for reading!


Footnotes:
1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpp7OCngXQM (His last lap of life, on board camera, not for the faint hearted!!)
2. http://previewsandreviews.blogspot.in/2011/10/senna-no-fear-no-limits-no-equal.html ( A blog review on the movie Senna)
3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hUWuR2Dj78 ( Monaco GP 1984, first race)
4. http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/why-ayrton-senna-remains-greatest-racer-history-191054410.html (Comments taken from this.)
5. http://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/54800.html (Twenty equal cars-ESPN article)
6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k4pun6j0Fg ( On board camera)
7. Quotes taken from Brainyquote
8. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9qZu7h5ys0 ( Lap of life)

Feedback

If a friend of yours is about to do something for the very first time and you've already done that and you know the likely bad consequences of it, then would you advise him not to proceed or would you let him(her) learn from that experience on his(her) own ?

I think the action one should take in that particular situation depends on the feedback-time. By feedback, I mean, the analysis from the results or the consequences on doing that particular 'something' and by "time", I mean, the duration needed for your friend to feel or experience the results or consequences.


From that, I'd say that I'll advise my friend or caution him not to do that 'something' if the "feedback-time" is very long, say months or an year. And I'll keep my mouth shut in contrast. ( Using this conclusion only for illustration purpose).

Feedback is very important.

 Let's divide feedback into two types based on point of reference: 1. Direct 2. Indirect

Direct Feedback

The name itself is self explanatory, I hope. We get feedback on our own by self assessing the decisions and the end results of those decisions.

 For example, you decided to watch a movie because you came across a high rating given to that movie in some website. Later, you resented that movie and your decision of watching it. The feedback from this decision: " Read more reviews. Not one".

You can get self or direct feedback also by not doing the act on your own. Read my previous blog: .Vicarious experience

Indirect Feedback

It is the feedback given by others.

There are fields where this indirect feedback is very important, like teaching, surgery, athletics, investing, etc. Its important because we may be more biased when thinking of ourselves. And if you want to master something, you have to have an environment where there is an ample opportunity to learn and a ready feedback. So that you can have insights regarding your subject and on practicing like that for stretch ( deliberately ), you'll master it. Almost anyone can work hard, even the donkey can. But without feedback, hard work's value may come down.

So How can one create an environment with ready feedback available ? One way is to have an associate watch you perform or simply have a coach. There is a lecture given by Dr. Atul Gawande (author of The Checklist Manifesto),  watch it for more insight into this concept.  (see link in footnotes)

And I agree that its very difficult to have coaches or friends tell us feedback. But We must give importance to feedback, I reckon.


Negative & Positive Feedback Loops :

There are wide range of applications of these loops in various fields of interests. I'm limiting myself to how I view or how I see using simple definitions.

Negative : This loop occurs when the result of a process you picked up creates a dissatisfaction which in turn cause regulation or provide a cap on your improvement. It goes on and on, if you do not abandon that negative feedback loop.

And the important thing is that we forget about this feedback when we are experiencing that negative, like when we lost in a match, failed in studies, race, game etc. Feedback dances in front of you after you lost, but we tend to ignore it and hug the negative emotions so tight.

The thing we need to do, I think, when we lost or failure occurs, be sad, cry, rewind, get feedback, and move on to other. That's it, nothing more.


Positive: In contrast to the above, this creates a result or consequence which maintains satisfaction (psychologically).

The result from the process you took up creates positive things and improves your learning course. That's how learning is done. If you happen to have positive feedback loops in your life, there is no turning back.


Footnotes:

1. Atul Gawande's lecture:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VabtGPVVihA
2. Positive and Negative feedback's wiki pages : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback  &  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_feedback


P S: This is no ideology, just my views.

P P S: Images were used to enhance the vividness of the content. This style is copied from my professor.


Thanks for reading.

Machiavelli & Prospect Theory

Machiavelli 

There is this quote in his book (The Prince) , which influenced me a lot. 

"The only way to appear generous is to be mean. Then your occasional acts of generosity will be remembered. If you try to be generous all the time, people will remember only your occasional acts of meanness." 

I believe in this ( which also states that I am highly likely to be biased in favor of his views too ). 

Prospect theory 

This theory was authored by Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky. 

I'll take two concepts from this theory, which are Possibility effect & Certainty effect. Consider the following gamble: (directly take from the book)

In the four examples below, your chances of receiving $1 million improve by 5%.  Is  the  news equally   good  in  each case?

A.   From  0  t o  5%

B.   From  5%  t o  10%

C.   From  60%  t o  65%

D.   From  95%  t o  100%

In each case, the prediction increases with the same 5%. That means the expected value of the utility has to be the same. But almost everyone agree that Case A ( from 0% to 5%) & Case D ( 95% to 100%) are more impressive. 

The large impact of 0% --> 5% illustrates possibility effect, and the other illustrates certainty effect.

This means that we give more weight to low probability events, such as this ONLY 5%. 

For example ( In perspective of boys) : Lets see this as a gamble and nothing more, a boy approaches the girl whom he's interested in,

and consider these two independent scenarios. 

Case A : The girl rejects him then and there itself. (Check-mate)

Case B : The girl (out of her empathy) responds smilingly though not promisingly. 

Case A suggests the probability of 0% likely, and Case B suggests the less probability ( say 5%). The mere transition from nil to small probability causes possibility effect, which in turn makes the boy filled with LARGE HOPE. 

Conclusion of possibility effect : We misjudge the events of less probability which are likely to yield a large outcome ( in the above example, girl loving back).

Machiavelli & Prospect theory

You've seen the negative part of possibility effect. Now consider the following which is somewhat positive.

Read that quote again. And I am sure that some of you guys might have thought that quote is bad or dictating evil. I entirely disbelieve such opinion. 

And I think Prospect theory provides psychological proof for that quote. Consider a following example: You have a complex question and you are looking for an answer, and you know that  only two persons can answer that. Mr. X and Miss. Y. 

Mr. X is consistent wit you, generous with you all the time and less likely that he can solve the problem.

Miss Y on the other hand is not generous with you all the time, but when needed she solved your problem in the past and provided good advice. This states very high outcome with very less probability. 

With the possibility effect, you tend to approach Miss Y. (Who is of directly opposite of nature what you believe in - generous all the time)

Example breakdown :

What happens exactly? 

When you face this choice that whom to approach, your mind starts recollecting the past history and data. In the case of Miss. Y, the rare events such as written above helping or solving the problem in the past with using her intellect and advice comes to mind very quickly if that event is vivid enough. This makes you assigning more weight in the choice to approach Miss. Y. 

This is what Machiavelli conveyed for future leaders: Be generous only few times but you should do those generous acts in such a way that people will have a vivid memory. 

P S : If those events are not vivid enough to be recalled , then you may favor Mr. X because of constant impressions he created. 

P P S : The writing style was predominantly made this way to create vividness. (And it is inspired from my professor) 

Thanks for reading.