Feedback

If a friend of yours is about to do something for the very first time and you've already done that and you know the likely bad consequences of it, then would you advise him not to proceed or would you let him(her) learn from that experience on his(her) own ?

I think the action one should take in that particular situation depends on the feedback-time. By feedback, I mean, the analysis from the results or the consequences on doing that particular 'something' and by "time", I mean, the duration needed for your friend to feel or experience the results or consequences.


From that, I'd say that I'll advise my friend or caution him not to do that 'something' if the "feedback-time" is very long, say months or an year. And I'll keep my mouth shut in contrast. ( Using this conclusion only for illustration purpose).

Feedback is very important.

 Let's divide feedback into two types based on point of reference: 1. Direct 2. Indirect

Direct Feedback

The name itself is self explanatory, I hope. We get feedback on our own by self assessing the decisions and the end results of those decisions.

 For example, you decided to watch a movie because you came across a high rating given to that movie in some website. Later, you resented that movie and your decision of watching it. The feedback from this decision: " Read more reviews. Not one".

You can get self or direct feedback also by not doing the act on your own. Read my previous blog: .Vicarious experience

Indirect Feedback

It is the feedback given by others.

There are fields where this indirect feedback is very important, like teaching, surgery, athletics, investing, etc. Its important because we may be more biased when thinking of ourselves. And if you want to master something, you have to have an environment where there is an ample opportunity to learn and a ready feedback. So that you can have insights regarding your subject and on practicing like that for stretch ( deliberately ), you'll master it. Almost anyone can work hard, even the donkey can. But without feedback, hard work's value may come down.

So How can one create an environment with ready feedback available ? One way is to have an associate watch you perform or simply have a coach. There is a lecture given by Dr. Atul Gawande (author of The Checklist Manifesto),  watch it for more insight into this concept.  (see link in footnotes)

And I agree that its very difficult to have coaches or friends tell us feedback. But We must give importance to feedback, I reckon.


Negative & Positive Feedback Loops :

There are wide range of applications of these loops in various fields of interests. I'm limiting myself to how I view or how I see using simple definitions.

Negative : This loop occurs when the result of a process you picked up creates a dissatisfaction which in turn cause regulation or provide a cap on your improvement. It goes on and on, if you do not abandon that negative feedback loop.

And the important thing is that we forget about this feedback when we are experiencing that negative, like when we lost in a match, failed in studies, race, game etc. Feedback dances in front of you after you lost, but we tend to ignore it and hug the negative emotions so tight.

The thing we need to do, I think, when we lost or failure occurs, be sad, cry, rewind, get feedback, and move on to other. That's it, nothing more.


Positive: In contrast to the above, this creates a result or consequence which maintains satisfaction (psychologically).

The result from the process you took up creates positive things and improves your learning course. That's how learning is done. If you happen to have positive feedback loops in your life, there is no turning back.


Footnotes:

1. Atul Gawande's lecture:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VabtGPVVihA
2. Positive and Negative feedback's wiki pages : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback  &  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_feedback


P S: This is no ideology, just my views.

P P S: Images were used to enhance the vividness of the content. This style is copied from my professor.


Thanks for reading.

Machiavelli & Prospect Theory

Machiavelli 

There is this quote in his book (The Prince) , which influenced me a lot. 

"The only way to appear generous is to be mean. Then your occasional acts of generosity will be remembered. If you try to be generous all the time, people will remember only your occasional acts of meanness." 

I believe in this ( which also states that I am highly likely to be biased in favor of his views too ). 

Prospect theory 

This theory was authored by Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky. 

I'll take two concepts from this theory, which are Possibility effect & Certainty effect. Consider the following gamble: (directly take from the book)

In the four examples below, your chances of receiving $1 million improve by 5%.  Is  the  news equally   good  in  each case?

A.   From  0  t o  5%

B.   From  5%  t o  10%

C.   From  60%  t o  65%

D.   From  95%  t o  100%

In each case, the prediction increases with the same 5%. That means the expected value of the utility has to be the same. But almost everyone agree that Case A ( from 0% to 5%) & Case D ( 95% to 100%) are more impressive. 

The large impact of 0% --> 5% illustrates possibility effect, and the other illustrates certainty effect.

This means that we give more weight to low probability events, such as this ONLY 5%. 

For example ( In perspective of boys) : Lets see this as a gamble and nothing more, a boy approaches the girl whom he's interested in,

and consider these two independent scenarios. 

Case A : The girl rejects him then and there itself. (Check-mate)

Case B : The girl (out of her empathy) responds smilingly though not promisingly. 

Case A suggests the probability of 0% likely, and Case B suggests the less probability ( say 5%). The mere transition from nil to small probability causes possibility effect, which in turn makes the boy filled with LARGE HOPE. 

Conclusion of possibility effect : We misjudge the events of less probability which are likely to yield a large outcome ( in the above example, girl loving back).

Machiavelli & Prospect theory

You've seen the negative part of possibility effect. Now consider the following which is somewhat positive.

Read that quote again. And I am sure that some of you guys might have thought that quote is bad or dictating evil. I entirely disbelieve such opinion. 

And I think Prospect theory provides psychological proof for that quote. Consider a following example: You have a complex question and you are looking for an answer, and you know that  only two persons can answer that. Mr. X and Miss. Y. 

Mr. X is consistent wit you, generous with you all the time and less likely that he can solve the problem.

Miss Y on the other hand is not generous with you all the time, but when needed she solved your problem in the past and provided good advice. This states very high outcome with very less probability. 

With the possibility effect, you tend to approach Miss Y. (Who is of directly opposite of nature what you believe in - generous all the time)

Example breakdown :

What happens exactly? 

When you face this choice that whom to approach, your mind starts recollecting the past history and data. In the case of Miss. Y, the rare events such as written above helping or solving the problem in the past with using her intellect and advice comes to mind very quickly if that event is vivid enough. This makes you assigning more weight in the choice to approach Miss. Y. 

This is what Machiavelli conveyed for future leaders: Be generous only few times but you should do those generous acts in such a way that people will have a vivid memory. 

P S : If those events are not vivid enough to be recalled , then you may favor Mr. X because of constant impressions he created. 

P P S : The writing style was predominantly made this way to create vividness. (And it is inspired from my professor) 

Thanks for reading. 

Boiling frog syndrome

If you take a frog near a bowl of water which is at boiling temperature, it flees off. It won't come even near to it. 

But if you place the same frog in a bowl of water at a room temperature and starts boiling on slow flame. It won't come out. It starts adapting to its surroundings and finally it dies. 

Watch this video:Link

In professor's words: "...And so, imagine that everyday I consume 100 calories more than I expend. Will I look fatter the next day? Of course not. Not even the day after or the week after. Will I?

But if you saw me after an year, you’d notice that I have gained some weight. And if you saw me after 3 years, you’ll notice that I am obese. But if you saw me every day, you won’t notice that I gone from being fit to being obese in 3 years.......

I can assure you that there is no truth whatever in this story, but the human equivalent of the boiling frog is there in all of us. Cognition, misled by tiny changes involving low contrast, will often miss a trend that is destiny.

But this is all negative way of seeing this. There is a positive way too. Consider yourself as a Frog and you can manipulate yourself with this effect. 

Suppose you want to have a habit, a good habit for example reading books. Start with tiny little increments, first week you will read few pages. And next you'll read some more, and next some more. I hope you are getting the powerful idea behind this. 

“A journey of a thousand miles must begin with the first step.”

“When you improve a little each day, eventually big things occur. When you improve conditioning a little each day; eventually you have a big improvement in conditioning. Not tomorrow, not the next day; but eventually a big gain is made. Don’t look for the big, quick improvement. Seek the small improvement one day at a time. That’s the only way it happens-and when it happens, it lasts.” -John Wooden, one of the most successful coaches in the history of college basketball

All changes, even positive ones, are scary. Attempts to reach goals through radical or revolutionary means often fail because they heighten fear. But the small steps disarm the brain’s fear response, stimulating rational thought and creative play.